176669431.30 teams 30 days indiana pacers

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

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Notable Additions: Jay Huff, Kam Jones, Taelon Peter, re-signed Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman

Notable Subtractions: Myles Turner, Thomas Bryant, James Johnson

Depth Chart:

PG: Andrew Nembhard / T.J. McConnell/ Taelon Peter / RayJ Dennis / Tyrese Haliburton

SG: Bennedict Mathurin / Ben Sheppard / Kam Jones / Quenton Jackson

SF: Aaron Nesmith / Johnny Furphy

PF: Pascal Siakam / Obi Toppin / Jarace Walker

C: Isaiah Jackson / Jay Huff / Tony Bradley / James Wiseman

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Tyrese Haliburton

Core: Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard

Key Rotation: Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Isaiah Jackson, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Jay Huff

Rotation: Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Tony Bradley, James Wiseman

Development: Taelon Peter, Kam Jones, Quenton Jackson, RayJ Dennis

Offseason Overview:

The basketball gods couldn’t have schemed a more deflating end to the Pacers’ magical postseason run, with Hali’s tragic injury shifting the course of this franchise forever, leaving the Pacers’ players and fans alike in a state of hapless disbelief. Fortunately, IND made an auspicious trade the day before Game 7, reacquiring their 2026 1st round pick in exchange for their 2025 pick, giving themselves some much needed flexibility to potentially build upon the roster in their engine’s absence.

Indy’s front office went to work restructuring their roster, balancing the tax constraints Herb Simon has saddled them with for decades, while trying field a cohesive enough team to draw meaningful conclusions about their young players.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Offensive Rebounding: 25.2 OREB% (2nd worst among playoff teams), 13.4 putback opportunities per 100 missed shots (LAST among playoff teams)

🥈 Contested Shooting: 30th in Contested 3PT PTS Added (11.2), 27th in Pull-Up 3P Shot Creation

🥉 Motion Scoring: 28th in Motion Playtypes Frequency (6.4%), 1st in PPP (1.07)

Indy is a motion offense but rarely ran “motion” playtypes, instead mainly relying on Tyrese/Siakam to generate the initial advantages with the ball in their hands, the principles are there for Rick to mix in more dribble handoffs and off-ball screens.

Season Outlook:

1. How can the Pacers equitably distribute Tyrese’s creation load?

Indy’s guard room just can’t catch a break, with T.J. McConnell and Kam Jones joining Hali on the sidelines for at least a month. That places a even larger initiation load on Nembhard’s shoulders, which has led to some Most Improved player hype in Hali’s absence. There’s a number of reasons why those expectations should be lowered a bit, as it’s not fair to expect a massive leap for a player stepping into a suboptimal role without the playmaker his efficiency has largely been dependent on.

In the ~ 1800 minutes Nembhard played without Hali over the last 3 years, the Pacers were outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions, his TS% fell 7 percent (57.8 -> 50.9%) and his rim FG% decreased from 77.7% to 58.5%. This is a reflection of how hard it is to be a lineup’s POA defender and lead initiator, as Nembhard’s defensive effectiveness also tailed off when his offensive usage increased.

The encouraging thing is Nembhard took legitimate steps forward as a PNR operator (50th in PNR Points over Expectation last year) and doubled his assists per 75 with a tiny increase in his turnovers with Hali off the floor, though Indy needs to be conscious of how much they’re asking of him on both ends. Nesmith should probably be deployed on the most taxing POA assignments, with Siakam and Benn splitting some of the creation reps.

2. What growth will IND need to see from Benn Mathurin to retain him next offseason?

Rick Carlisle declared that Mathurin would be the starting shooting guard this offseason, describing him as a natural scorer that can generate 8 free throw attempts a game with ease, whole also identifying Benn’s quick decision making and passing reads as a big point of emphasis this year. Per @crumpledjumper, 6 of the Pacers’ 9-man rotation had a hold–time (average time elapsed before dribbling, passing or shooting) BELOW 1 second, and Mathruin had by far the longest time to make a decision with an average of 1.14 seconds, a full .21 seconds slower than the average Indy rotation player.

Catching and holding to survey the defense works for some players in some systems, but for a team like Indiana that is built open quick decision making, Mathurin’s propensity to delay the advantages created by movement throws their offense out of whack, especially considering his middling efficiency and terrible turnover percentage. His frame and downhill aggression is still valuable, but he can be so much more effective by simply being comfortable playing faster.

3. Is there hope for Jarace Walker?

I was a proud Jarace Walker investor during the 2023 NBA draft cycle, as I was fully bought in on his potential as a 2-way havoc creating big. His first couple seasons in Indy have been rocky, as he’s struggled to carve out a meaningful role despite shooting the ball relatively well. Similar to Mathurin, Jarace’s biggest bottleneck is struggling to adjust to a fast-paced playstyle.

Luckily for Walker, he has Siakam as a mentor, the closest thing the NBA has to a chameleon. During training camp, Siakam instructed Jarace to speed up his drives, saying “Don’t put it down first like this…You’re wasting your dribble, especially with how fast we wanna play.” His instructions to quicken Jarace’s burst from a standstill will make him much more effective punishing bigs sagging off of him, which could make him one of the better spot-up players in the sport considering he shot 40% from 3 on decent volume last year.

I think he’s salvageable as an offensive player, but the numbers are starting to concern me on defense. It’s unfathomable that a guy with a +8 wingspan and a pre-NCAA 6.2 BLK% had opponents shoot 14% BETTER at the rim when he contested them last year. I suspect some of this has to do with him playing so many minutes without a 5 next to him as well as having to try and plug the holes Hali, Mathurin and Toppin leave for him, though the film also shows a concerning amount of times he allowed drivers to break containment.

4. Can Huff, Walker and Jackson scale up as dribble handoff hubs?

Indy needs to diversify their offense without Hali, and the easiest way to do that is playing through their bigs. Walker and Jackson average more than respectable per minute rim assists for their position, while Huff’s spacing ability and comfortability at the top of the key makes him a natural choice to run handoff actions through. The issue is, none of these guys are particularly physical screeners or elite rollers, 2 of the key skills you need to be a viable hub.

Indy will need to integrate those handoff actions into the flow of their offense instead of using it as a foundational advantage creator, resetting possessions by flowing into handoffs. Stix (Isaiah Jackson) would be my pick for most effective DHO hub this season.

5. How dramatically will the Pacers’ playstyle on both ends shift in Tyrese’s absence?

The best beat writer in the game, @C2_Cooper, posted an incredibly interesting takeaway from the Pacers 1st preseason game. According to Caitlin, in the regular season, “The Pacers averaged 4.9 possessions with at least three offensive players crashing last season, which ranked 26th in the league. Last night [n their 1st preseason game], they racked up 30.”

Losing Hali meant the Pacers also lost their biggest edge in the possession battle, the privilege to centralize all the playmaking into Hali’s hands, which minimized their turnovers. Carlisle is clearly experimenting for another way to win the possession game, sending his wings to snag errant shots, attempting to add additional FGA by generating offensive rebounds. Attacking the offensive glass is how HOU was able to supplement their anemic halfcourt offense, but IND is missing the individually dominant offensive rebounder that demands box outs, thus clearing the lane for guys to sneakily grab boards. Every team in the T10 in OREB% last year featured at least 1 top 10% offensive rebounder, something IND likely won’t have.

They’ll need to take a page out of Toronto’s book and up their transition frequency to empower Siakam in the open floor while minimizing the amount of time they have to try and orchestrate in the halfcourt, especially since Nembhard and Mathurin are both far more turnover-prone than Hali..

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 38.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 33–49 (-17 wins)

Indiana hasn’t won less than 30 games since 1988 and has the 12th best record in the league since 2004, the last year they paid the tax. Simply put, they remain relatively competitive no matter what.

Ceiling: 41–41 (-9 wins)

Rick Carlisle might squeeze value out of a roster better than anyone ever, and there’s just enough here for the Pacers to sneak into the play-in.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Nets this season?

Overall Grade: B+

Up Next: Minnesota Timberwolves